Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may be slightly enhanced at times through this period, but with aurora mostly confined to higher latitudes. There is just a slight chance of visible aurora reaching northern Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may be slightly enhanced at times through this period, but with aurora mostly confined to higher latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A chance of further Moderate-class flares and slight chance of Strong flares through the period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity is currently Moderate, with two lower Moderate class flares from the largest and most magnetically complex region, currently located to the west of centre of the visible disc. Aside from this region the other regions are relatively small, simple and stable or in slight decay. Seven of these lie in the western solar hemisphere, with one toward the northeast limb.
No likely Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have shown declining speeds. Winds initially elevated near 500 km/s, but reduced erratically through the period to current levels around 400km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field initially Moderate, peaking round 13nT at 27/1800UTC before declining to become become weak, 5-6 nT. The important north-south component, Bz, showed alternating periods of moderately negative and positive, peaks +12 nT and -9 nT, initially, but also reduced from 27/1800UTC to vary weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1 to 4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a chance of Moderate-class flares and a slight chance of Strong flares maintained though the period, this mainly from the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot group, which is currently west of centre disk.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection (CME) which originated late on 26 Apr from an area of plage and a filament eruption in the southeast of the disc, could give a glancing blow early on day 3 (30 Apr).
Recent fast solar wind influence weakened during the second half of the 27 Apr with conditions currently returning towards background levels. However, further fast wind influences possible in the next few days. Later on day 4 (1 May) a more likely connection to fast solar winds likely.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled for much of the period, but with a slight chance of Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals due to faster solar winds or possible glancing CME influences.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is likely to remain at background levels, but with a decreasing slight chance of reaching the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold, as the large sunspot cluster which was in the southwest rotates well away from the limb.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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